Our football betting expert Jones Knows provides his insight ahead of Super Sunday.
Crystal Palace have not won in their last 12 games in all competitions but everyone knows about their current plight. But it's pretty gloomy at Brighton too, who have finally started to prove me right in how much of an overrated team they are. Just one win in 11 games means Fabian Hurzeler is facing huge pressure now.
And, this is exactly the type of opposition they struggle against: low block, long quick vertical football and a head-to-head record of winning just two of the last 13 games with their rivals. Looking at the match odds, where Brighton are around Evens, market forces are also now becoming cold on this Brighton team which is quite a big pointer that Hurzeler is going to struggle to turn this around.
Trusting Palace though isn't viable either, meaning the draw makes lots of sense to back at 13/5 with Sky Bet.
Liverpool at 11/8 with Sky Bet? Sign me up.
Since drawing at Leeds, their defensive numbers are back to where they were last season, offering up very little to the opposition in terms of big chances. Across their last 13 games, they've conceded just 0.75 goals per game to a backdrop of 0.8 expected goals against per game. Arne Slot has fixed the leak.
Yet, Man City's defensive structure and out-of-possession play has quietly become a cause for concern. They are showing signs of the same problems of last season where teams were finding it so easy to play through the City midfield and defence to create big chances.
Since they drew with Chelsea, in six games where they've gone off bigger than 1/3 to win, they've been repeatedly badly exposed defensively, shipping an expected goals against tally of 1.6 per 90 and facing 4.8 shots on target per 90.
Liverpool may run riot if City don't tighten up, meaning the home team handicap market at -1 at 7/2 with Sky Bet is a lovely way to back Slot's men to win by two or more goals.
